Iran’s election is a circus but its outcome could still decide on war or peace with Israel
June 12, the day of Iran’s presidential elections, could be a fateful day in the modern history of the Middle East. The elections are real but not liberal or democratic — candidates are vetted carefully by the religious authorities who regardless of the outcome remain the country’s real leaders. Nonetheless the difference in perceptions in the West in general and Israel in particular of the two leading candidates could mean the difference between military action to stop Iran acquiring nuclear weapons or a continuation of the current policy consensus of sleep walking towards a nuclear armed Iran.
If the incumbent, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, stays in power it becomes more likely that Israel, with or without American approval, will launch a military attack. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, will not want to be remembered as the man who allowed Iran to go nuclear on his watch, especially in view of the current president’s oft stated remarks about destroying Israel by wiping it “from the page of history”. The Obama administration, deeply concerned about Ahmadinejad but lacking the will to take action itself, may just be pursuaded to let the Israelis do the dirty work on their own. On the other hand, if Ahmadinejad’s chief rival, Mir Hossein Mousavi, wins the elections the calls for restraint from Washington may be so strong that Israel has no choice but to hold off. Mousavi is billed as a “moderate” in most press reporting in the West. Washington will therefore likely tell Israel that Tehran must be given time to show that it is charting a new course. Of course, since some intelligence estimates suggest Iran could cross the nuclear threshold within a year, restraint could very well equal allowing Iran to go nuclear unmolested.
I offer two timely articles about Iran which explain the nature of the dilemmas confronting policy makers.
The first, from Michael Ledeen at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, provides invaluable insights on the situation inside Iran itself. To read the article, click here:
http://pajamasmedia.com/michaelledeen/2009/06/02/the-iranian-circus/
The second, from Jeremy Sharon — a writer and analyst based in Jerusalem — provides very interesting insights on the perspective from Israel. To read the article click here:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jun/03/israel-iran-nuclear-weapons
June 4th, 2009 at 10:52 am
This is a great piece again. A complex area explained very succinctly. Keep it going Robin.