Is a military strike on Iran imminent? The G8 thinks Israel will do it
Silvio Berlusconi, prime minister of Italy, is an unconventional politician and he is difficult to predict. But even Berlusconi is surely too well versed in the customs of international diplomacy to make predictions about Israel attacking Iran without very good grounds for doing so. On the sidelines of the G8* summit in Canada on Saturday he said the following:
“Iran is not guaranteeing a peaceful production of nuclear power [so] the members of the G-8 are worried and believe absolutely that Israel will probably react pre-emptively.” (My italics)
Unless Berlusconi is being completely irresponsible, this sounds like a warning that something may be imminent. It is also worth noting that Berlusconi’s remarks came the day before CIA director Leon Panetta said Iran probably has enough uranium to build two nuclear weapons within the next two years.
It is highly unlikely that Panetta would have gone public on such a sensitive issue for no good reason. The same goes for Berlusconi. So, my guess as to what is going on is as follows: Either Israel is about to attack Iran and all of this is designed to prepare the world for what is coming; Or, this is a last ditch attempt to frighten the Iranians into compliance by explicitly putting the imminent use of force on the table.
Obviously, I have no inside track on what is going on. But you don’t need a sixth sense to recognise that something significant is afoot.
* The G8 is made up of the following countries: The United States, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, Canada.
June 28th, 2010 at 3:40 pm
Why on earth would anyone give warning?
June 28th, 2010 at 5:05 pm
According to a recent forbes.com article – ‘There Will Be War’ – US warships are gathering in the Persian Gulf. The U.K., France, Germany, and Israel are also involved in the buildup of military forces. However I can’t imagine Obama ordering a mitiry strike on Iran while still mired in Iraq and Afganistan, unless Iran is getting close to building an atomic bomb, and Israel is somehow forcing his hand.
June 28th, 2010 at 5:07 pm
ISRAEL SHOLD NOT ACCOMODATE THE WEAKLING WEST BY DOING ITS DIRTY WORK.THEY ARE GOING TO CASTIGATE ISRAEL WHATEVER THE OUTCOME.THE IRANIAN A-BOMB IS AS MUCH A MENACE TO EUROPE AS TO ISRAEL.LETS THEM DEAL WITH IT.FIRST IN LINE THE SWEDISH DOCKERS.
June 28th, 2010 at 6:38 pm
The Iranian nuclear programme is the biggest issue of our time and vastly more important than the Al Qaida issue ever was. That alone served as a pretext for the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq by the US and its allies. I would not read too much into Berlusconi’s statement, but I am pleased by the Israeli reticence on the subject. Hopefully they’ve given Obama enough time to see the idiocy of his ways, so that at least he’ll acquiesce in the face of the inevitable Israeli operation. I assume that this will have the critical, tacit backing of Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other Arab states. As with everything, the key is the quality of the intelligence gathered on Iran’s nuclear weapons programme. Let’s hope that enough disenchanted Iranian scientists are quietly providing information, so that the operation will properly finish the job. Hopefully this will be an utter humiliation for the Iranian regime and will contribute to its downfall.
June 29th, 2010 at 2:08 am
I agree with Mr. Jonathan Karmi on most of his thoughts ; However,I am not so sure that the Iraqi and Afghanistan thing,was any kind of pretext.This would imply considerable brain power in American executive,which,lets face it,is populated by ignorant idiots. From top down. A flaw of the so called ‘democratic’ system. But this (flaw) is another matter. Let’s return back to the main subject : let us not put to much faith either, into Israely brain power and strenght at the top. Especially considering the malignant influence of labor’s E. Barak. But,thanks to HaShem,we (Israel)have unique (yes,yes)outstanding intelectuals acting in the wings,capable of swinging the decision making process on to the right path.
Which,my dear friends,is nuking Iran.
But not what most of the public thinks. Not the blast,the radioactive cloud,piles of corpses No,Israelis are inovators.
EMP bomb is the thing. And Israel has all the technology in place to do it.
When it happens,and it will happen,get in tuch with me,we will say a bracha together.
Shalom alechem !
June 29th, 2010 at 11:10 am
Iran is a problem not because of the nuclear but because of its hostile intentions towards [especially] its neighbors . Israel is saying what the Arabs are afraid to say. The Western leaders understand it but are too impotent or too careless to explain it to their left-anti Israel media and public. They are using Israel to threaten but will accuse Israel afterwards no matter what the result will be. There is no point in bombing without a diplomatic result afterwards and I hope that Israel has already learned the lesson.
June 29th, 2010 at 12:06 pm
There is historic enmity between the Shiia and Sunni, and this hatred is visceral.
It is worth noting that Saudi Arabia, the ‘leader’ of the Sunni camp, has already fought a very bloody proxy war with Iran, using Saddam as its paw. In that war, the Sunni side used Chemical weapons against Iran, despite it being illegal. Neither the UN or the West wholeheartedly condemned Iraq for that gross violation.
Iran is unlikely to have forgotten that, and its nuclear weapons development may therefore be more a strategic defence against a Sunni side that already has nuclear weapons(Pakistan) and has shown no reluctance to use weapons of mass destruction on Iranians.
Now to us, it may seem that countries basing their political decisions on theology is old fashioned. Maybe, but that is how it is in the Islamic world.
It is therefore no surprise that there reports that Saudi Arabia is allowing Israel to use its airspace.
However, we and Israel must be careful of SA. Let SA stew in its juice. I see no reason why we should yet again save Saudi chestnuts, even as they fund the great Jihad against us.
June 29th, 2010 at 12:07 pm
As Marian asked, why would anyone want to warn the Iranians? I also doubt that anyone thinks that invoking a possible Israeli strike for the umpteenth time will suddenly frighten them into compliance. It sounds to me more like wishful thinking. Most of the European countries and now the Americans under Obama have had a field day bashing Israel every time some Muslim fanatic gives the signal, but they persist in seeing Israel as some superman among nations that will nevertheless and against their combined opposition ride to their rescue and solve the Iranian problem for them.
I don’t include Berlusconi in this criticism, since he has behaved more rationally then many other government heads.
June 29th, 2010 at 12:14 pm
PS
Given recent history, Iran may be using Israel as a political smokescreen to develop nuclear weapons, to deter the Sunni side from using WMD.
I believe that Saudi Arabia, and the rest of the Arab states that waged war on Iran using a Sunni ruled Iraq, know this to be the case. It is also worth noting that Iraq, majority shia and shia ruled, no longer consider Iran as a strategic threat.
June 29th, 2010 at 12:40 pm
The correct headline should be: “Will Obama save Iran from Israel?”
Maybe Berlusconi and others are concerned that Obama the appeaser will try to pressure Israel?
June 29th, 2010 at 9:08 pm
Gosh, I need to delay my aliya again for a few months…
July 1st, 2010 at 12:06 am
YAAKOV HAIMOVI i concur but israel has no choice really. it’s been asking the rest of planet earth to stop iran yet for some strange inexplicable reason the world see’s israel as the problem. it has nothing to loose as far as popularity goes by an attack.